2026年开年才半个多月，好像已经过了两三个月了。笔者感到似乎回到了2025年初，特朗普刚登基那会儿的“flooding the zone” ，也就是他的各种政策/发推，每天从早到晚，令媒体/市场应接不暇……最后大家无法判断真假、对错、合法犯法……2026年是中期选举年，历史统计数据与执政党不利，特朗普索性就来个“All-in”搏一搏，搏了还有赢的可能性，不搏估计以后的两年就不停地被调查和被弹劾，下台后说不定就步韩国总统的后尘……
Powell first shook head to Trump and now Powell shakes fist. Trump experienced another great defeat after China's trade war. Trump seemed incapable of suppressing the local inflation to get votes for mid-term election and he may turn outwards to military control.
When 10 year yield rose above 4.2%，does it mean US CPI will hover around 2.7% and make rate cut before June improbable?
I think CPI still be sticky, whether cut or not to cut, is still the question, depending on which indicator Fed is looking at. Definitely interesting time!
Powell first shook head to Trump and now Powell shakes fist. Trump experienced another great defeat after China's trade war. Trump seemed incapable of suppressing the local inflation to get votes for mid-term election and he may turn outwards to military control.
When 10 year yield rose above 4.2%，does it mean US CPI will hover around 2.7% and make rate cut before June improbable?
I think CPI still be sticky, whether cut or not to cut, is still the question, depending on which indicator Fed is looking at. Definitely interesting time!